But, if God does exist and there is, indeed a life after death, he may fail to make it to heaven and suffer infinite dissatisfaction. Scenario 2 : On the other hand, a man unwilling to live a moral life may indulge in earthly satisfactions.Scenario 1: if one were to live an orderly life in the hope of making it to heaven in the afterlife, then, those that lead a moral life endure limited sacrifices in this world in exchange for infinite satisfaction in the world beyond, assuming that God does exist and that there is a life after death.Mathematical prodigy, Blaise Pascal, a Frenchman, relied upon probabilistic thinking to prove the existence of God or at least prove that believing in God was eminently rational. Blaise Pascal and the invention of statistics In fact, the use of the Hindu numbering system and the concept of zero proved crucial in developing a science of probability. While they did recognize that much in the world was accidental and unexplainable, they failed to develop a science of probability. He mentions that “the recognition of risk management as a practical art rest on a simple cliché with the most profound consequences: when our world was created, nobody remembered to include certainty.” Indeed, the Greek gods rolled the dice to decide who would rule the heavens, the world, and the underworld. (Oct.In his book, Against The Gods, the remarkable story of risk, financial analyst and asset manager, Peter Bernstein, begins with the creation cosmic creation.

Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.

Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history.

The remarkable story of risk